By 謝忠理 on Friday, 10 March 2023
Category: 經濟學人

美中兩強角力下的台灣—《經濟學人》懶人包 No. 9337 (2023/03/11)

歐洲正在目睹自 1945 年以來最血腥的跨境戰爭,但亞洲有可能發生更糟糕的事情:美國和中國在臺灣的衝突。

隨著美國軍隊轉向一種被稱為「分散式殺傷力」的新理論,以抵禦中國的導彈攻擊,局勢變得高度緊張。

由於臺灣只能抵抗幾天或幾周的攻擊,任何衝突都可能迅速升級為超級大國之間的對抗。

當美國在亞洲重整旗鼓並試圖激勵其盟友時,有兩個問題迫在眉睫。它是否願意冒著與另一個核大國直接開戰的風險來保衛臺灣(但它卻不準備為烏克蘭這樣做)?而透過在亞洲與中國進行軍事競爭,它是否會挑起它試圖阻止的戰爭?

【經典美語】獨家課程

《經濟學人》即時精修班

全台灣獨一無二的英語進修課程

每周三,即時精修班利用《經濟學人》綜合五大洋七大洲,橫跨政治、經濟、社會、文化各面向的精彩報導與分析,引領讀者進入英語閱讀與寫作的高級殿堂。統合字彙、文法、句型、結構、邏輯、背景知識,提供學者全方位的英語學習體驗。

課程說明請點選下列按鈕,並歡迎預約試聽 (實體、雲端)。

  • 一周大事

    The world this week

  • 政治

    Politics

    A security officer stand guard after the second plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 7, 2023. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP) (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)

    一周政治大事回顧。

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  • 商業

    Business

    US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on

    一周經濟大事摘要。

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  • 社論

    Leaders

  • 社論

    The missing quarter of a million

    不少英國人在過去十年英年早逝,為什麼?25 萬名英國人死亡之謎答案何在?

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  • 社論

    America, China and Taiwan

    中美兩超級大國的衝突將撼動世界,要如何避免對臺海戰爭?

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  • 社論

    Too fast to land

    頑強的經濟使抗擊通貨膨脹的鬥爭複雜化,更高的利率不足以減緩全球增長的速度。

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  • 社論

    Macron’s troubles

    國內的罷工和烏克蘭的戰爭考驗著法國總統,目前是馬克宏的關鍵時刻。

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  • 社論

    Testing fail

    美國大學追求公平的方式是錯誤的,應該取消的是傳統錄取方式,而非標準化考試。

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  • 投書

    Letters

  • 投書

    Letters

    關於醫學研究、經合組織的生育率、士兵的心理健康、能源公司、汽車等寫給編輯的信件精選。

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  • 邀稿

    By Invitation

  • 邀稿

    Russia and Ukraine

    英國的駐莫斯科國防武官約翰.福爾曼對俄羅斯參謀總長瓦列裡.格拉西莫夫的失敗的看法。

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  • 簡報

    Briefing

  • 簡報

    Storm warning

    美國和中國正在準備一場關於臺灣的戰爭,這場戰爭將在整個地區蔓延開來,給世界帶來破壞性的後果。

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  • 美國

    United States

  • 美國

    Say it ain’t Joe

    如果拜登決定不競選連任會怎樣?民主黨的板凳上人才濟濟。

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  • 美國

    (De)trans litigation

    WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 20: Chloe Cole speaks as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) looks on during a news conference on Capitol Hill September 20, 2022 in Washington, DC. Greene discussed her legislation named the Protect Childrens Innocence Act, which would prohibit gender-affirming healthcare to transgender people under the age of 18. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    一些去性別轉換者開始將他們的醫生告上法庭,而這些法律行動可能改變美國的跨性別人護理。

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  • 美國

    O beautiful for spacious highs

    PETROLIA, CALIFORNIA - August 3, 2022: The morning fog leaves a layer of dew on cannabis farmer Drew Barbers cannabis rows in Petrolia, California August 3, 2022. Barber practices regenerative farming and is sun and earth certified. He has 10,000 square foot full-season outdoor varieties of cannabis in Humboldt, County.Humboldt is a part of the Emerald Triangle, a region made up of Humboldt, Mendocino, and Trinity counties. The Emerald Triangle is one the historically largest cannabis-producing regions in the United States. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

    大麻和麻醉不能混用:隨著越來越多的美國人吸毒,大麻的醫療弊端正受到凸顯。

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  • 美國

    Closing down schools in America

    BOSTON - JULY 11: A finished clean room with stacked chairs in the science room at the Mildred Avenue K-8 School building in Boston's Mattapan, which were being cleaned for the reopening of school on July 9, 2020. Many measures are being taken by school systems to keep students safe from the COVID-19 pandemic including placing social distancing markers on the floors, increasing hand sanitizer stations, and increased cleaning. (Photo by David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

    美國的學校正在走向緊縮,入學率正在下降;預算也將隨之下降。

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  • 美國

    Republicans and voter fraud

    People make file in and out of Miami Beach City Hall, where voters can cast their ballots during Florida's 2022 midterm primaries, in Miami Beach, Fla. on Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022. (Scott McIntyre/The New York Times)Credit: New York Times / Redux / eyevineFor further information please contact eyevinetel: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709e-mail: info@eyevine.comwww.eyevine.com

    三個共和黨州退出防止選民欺詐計畫,這只會使未來的選舉更加無序。

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  • 美國

    Composting humans

    相當多的美國年輕人計畫以轉成肥料的方式做為人生的終結。

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  • 美國

    Lexington

    美國的政府沒有被「武器化」,但它正被錯誤的國會監督所破壞。

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  • 美洲

    The Americas

  • 美洲

    Deals not done

    阿根廷正在浪費中國提供給它的巨大機會,中國正在詢問這位南美夥伴:牛肉在哪裡?

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  • 亞洲

    Asia

  • 亞洲

    Free trade in Asia

    中國渴望加入該地區的首要貿易協定,這正凸顯川普如何損害美國在亞洲的利益。

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  • 亞洲

    Gay watching for straight women

    泰國的男同電視劇是下一個 K-pop 嗎?泰國人對日本漫畫故事情節的演繹在日本受到熱烈歡迎。

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  • 亞洲

    East Asian Relations

    Yang Geum-deok, a South Korean victim of Japan's wartime forced labor, arrives at a rally against the South Korean government's move to improve relations with Japan in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, March 1, 2023. South Korea's president on Wednesday called Japan

    韓國有計劃結束與日本的二戰強迫勞動之爭,美國希望它能鞏固對抗中國的統一戰線。

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  • 亞洲

    Banyan

    新加坡第一家庭的裂痕變得更加嚴重,李光耀不希望有任何紀念品,但卻留下了家族的恩怨。

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  • 中國

    China

  • 中國

    Wolf worriers

    習近平的強硬語言掩蓋了他的憂慮,中國對世界的重新開放可能是一個坎坷的過程。

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  • 中國

    Credibility over confidence

    People cross a street near office towers in the Lujiazui financial district, ahead of the National People's Congress (NPC), in Shanghai, China, February 28, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

    解讀中國樸實無華的成長目標:政府對經濟和自己的聲譽採取了安全性原則。

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  • 中國

    Learning skills, not values

    The 16th China International Education Exhibition Tour college fair attracts around 10,000 visitors each of its two days in Beijing. There are two floors of booths representing test prep services, admissions agents, language schools, banks and many universities with institutions from 28 different countries.UsaStudy.com.cn - helps Chinese students go to America to study.Credit: Redux / eyevineFor further information please contact eyevinetel: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709e-mail: info@eyevine.comwww.eyevine.com

    中國的許多政府高階官員都在西方接受過教育,但這並沒有使他們對西方產生好感。

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  • 中國

    Chaguan

    黨的控制在中國意味著什麼?共產黨正在從政府辦公室和專家手中奪取權力,這讓人感到擔憂。

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  • 中東非洲

    Middle East & Africa

  • 中東

    The incredible shrinking state

    在削減招聘的同時,阿拉伯官僚機構正在花更多的錢來獲得更少的東西。公務員工作難找,工資往往不高,但仍有大量需求。

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  • 非洲

    Time’s up—whatever the time is

    A man walks past a shop selling replicas of Ancient Egyptian statuettes, figurines, and canopic jars at the Khan el-Khalili bazaar area in Egypt's capital Cairo on June 3, 2021. - Pyramids, Tutankhamun masks, Nefertiti busts -- Egypt's souvenir craftspeople are pinning their hopes on a new lease of life, after tourism was battered by the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP) (Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images)

    擺弄埃及的時鐘:更長的日照時間不太可能修補經濟。

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  • 非洲

    Beyond the megacity

    非洲城鎮和小城市的發展正在改變非洲大陸的面貌:城市化正在使生活變得更好,但沒有它所能帶來的那樣多。

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  • 歐洲

    Europe

  • 歐洲

    Lock and load

    在過去的幾個月裡,烏克蘭收到了大量的西方武器,而目前正在集結部隊準備發動進攻。

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  • 歐洲

    The street v the president

    Protesters take part in a demonstration in Bordeaux, southwestern France, on March 7, 2023, as part of a nationwide day of strikes and protests called by unions over the government's proposed pensions reform. - Fuel deliveries and public transport were severely disrupted in France on March 7 as unions kicked off a fresh day of protest against a pensions reform that would push back the retirement age for millions. Unions have vowed to bring the country to a standstill with strikes over the proposed changes, which include raising the minimum retirement age to 64 from 62 and increasing the number of years people have to make contributions for a full pension. (Photo by PHILIPPE LOPEZ / AFP) (Photo by PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

    法國人民對馬克宏的養老金改革處於對峙狀態,罷工和抗議活動正在考驗法國總統的決心。

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  • 歐洲

    Turning the tables

    ANKARA, TURKIYE - JANUARY 24: Leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks during his party's group meeting at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara, Turkiye on January 24, 2023. (Photo by Ercin Erturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

    土耳其的反對派已經選定了自己的人選,但他們中的一些人對此並不滿意。

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  • 歐洲

    The centre can hold

    Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas speaks after the results of e-votes were announced, on March 5, 2023 in Tallinn, Estonia. - Kallas's centre-right Reform Party won the general election by a large margin, scoring 31.6 percent against 16 percent for the far-right EKRE, according to near complete results. In order to stay in power, Reform will again have to form a coalition with one or more of the parties that entered the Baltic state's 101-seat parliament Riigikogu. (Photo by RAIGO PAJULA / AFP) (Photo by RAIGO PAJULA/AFP via Getty Images)

    烏克蘭最堅定的支持者在愛沙尼亞贏得巨大的選舉勝利,首相卡婭.卡拉斯粉碎了她的歐洲懷疑論民粹主義對手。

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  • 歐洲

    Russian demography

    A mother rocks her baby in a stroller at a park in Moscow on May 25, 2022. (Photo by Yuri KADOBNOV / AFP) (Photo by YURI KADOBNOV/AFP via Getty Images)

    俄羅斯的人口惡夢將變得更加嚴峻,烏克蘭戰爭加劇了在衝突之前就存在的危機。

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  • 歐洲

    Charlemagne

    德國正在讓國內對於汽車生產的爭吵污染歐洲的綠色企圖心。

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  • 英國

    Britain

  • 英國

    A decade of death

    在過去的十年裡,英國的預期壽命已經停止增加而呈現持平狀態。為什麼有 25 萬英國人比預期的更早死亡?

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  • 英國

    Discovery process

    9th February 1932: 'Dynasphere' wheels being driven on Beans Sands near Weston-super-Mare, Somerset. The petrol driven model is on the right and the smaller, electric model is on the left. The inventor Dr J A Purves of Taunton hopes to revolutionise modern transport with them. (Photo by J. Gaiger/Topical Press Agency/Getty Images)

    英國最高法院考慮的論點:人工智慧可以成為一個發明家嗎?

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  • 英國

    Channel crossings

    A small boat packed with people is rescued in English waters by BF Defender operated by Border Force and overseen by HMS Severn in the middle of the English Channel on the 13th November 2022 near Folkestone Kent, United Kingdom. Channel Rescue watched from a safe distance as the inflatable raft containing about 40 people entered into English waters, BF then approached the dinghy slowly and threw a rope line over to bring them closer to the boat safely before unloading them on the Boarder Force vessel. Border Force boats patrols the English Channel to locate and collect asylum seekers crossing from France.(photo by Andrew Aitchison / In pictures via Getty Images)

    英國對「阻止移民船隻」提出新計畫,但阻止尋求庇護者移動的法律不太可能發揮作用。

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  • 英國

    Her pulse quickened

    Jane Austen s novel Persuasion - Written 1816 and published 1818. Caption reads: Sits at her elbow, reading verses, edition illustrated by Hugh Thomson 1897. English novelist b. 16 December 1775 - 1817. . Artist HT 1860 - 1920. Colourised version. (Photo by Culture Club/Getty Images)

    浪漫小說的銷售在英國正在上升,抖音世代正愛上這個文學流派。

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  • 英國

    Bagehot

    柴契爾、蘇納克和超級市場裡的政治。

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  • 國際

    International

  • 國際

    French diplomacy

    法國總統馬克宏心目中更有肌肉的歐洲願景正在實現,但他的盟友對其戰略和目標有不同意見。

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  • 特刊

    Special report

  • 特刊

    Taiwan

    臺灣是一個重要的島嶼,但正受到嚴重威脅。臺灣的命運最終將由其人民的戰備狀態決定。

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  • 特刊

    The past

    Guards march during the changing ceremony at Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall, in Taipei, Taiwan, February 12, 2023

    瞭解臺灣需要研究其歷史,臺灣是如何被其歷史和身份所塑造的?

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  • 特刊

    The economy

    Motorists commute past shipping containers at the port in Keelung on September 17, 2022. (Photo by I-HWA CHENG / AFP) (Photo by I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images)

    現在到了將臺灣的貿易和投資從中國轉移出去的時候了。臺灣的經濟很強大,但它需要減少對中國的依賴性。

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  • 特刊

    Semiconductors

    A staff walks in the lobby of the headquarter of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) in Hsinchu, Taiwan, February 16, 2023

    臺灣在晶片行業的主導地位使其更加重要。對臺灣來說,沒有哪個行業比晶片製造更重要。

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  • 特刊

    The home front

    A participant practices using bandage during the basis camps at KUMA Academy in Taipei, Taiwan, February 18, 2023

    與中國的戰鬥是身體上的,也是心理上的。因此心理學在抵制中國方面的有其重要性。

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  • 特刊

    Defence

    臺灣需要一個新的國防戰略來應對中國,臺灣需要優先考慮成為刺蝟,但模棱兩可的態度使其戰略決策受到影響。

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  • 特刊

    Politics

    臺灣政治面臨 2024 年初的關鍵選舉,總統選舉將在很大程度上決定臺灣的未來。

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  • 特刊

    What Taiwan needs

    Children play with pigeons at Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall, in Taipei, Taiwan, February 15, 2023

    臺灣亟需世界的支持:一個充滿活力的小規模民主國家需要得到保護,不受大國專制的影響。

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  • 商業

    Business

  • 商業

    Seizing the moment

    中國公司如何解決 TikTok 的問題?在反華情緒中做生意的 CEO 指南。

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  • 商業

    Where are all the robots?

    Tesla Optimushttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dS0aDMQoD4

    現在還不需要擔心人工智慧引發的就業末日,因為西方國家遭遇的是自動化程度太低,而不是太高。

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  • 商業

    The glass-ceiling index

    Londoners use the underpass steps leading into the Old Street station in Shoreditch, on 4th November 2019, in London, England. (Photo by Richard Baker / In Pictures via Getty Images)

    經過多年的下降,性別薪酬差距是否正在打開?運氣好的話,2021 年的差距增加只是一個小插曲。

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  • 商業

    Bartleby

    辦公室裡煩心事的小慰藉。

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  • 商業

    Schumpeter

    如何阻止貨櫃運輸的商品化?全球兩家最大的航運公司制定了截然不同的路線。

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  • 財經

    Finance & economics

  • 財經

    Tokyo grift

    西方令人困惑的就業奇跡能否繼續?幾乎沒有跡象顯示就業機會可能減少,但這對經濟過於暢旺可能是個壞消息。

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  • 財經

    Qiang Ker-ching

    A TV screen in a restaurant shows live coverage of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reading his work report during the opening session of the National Peoples Congress in Beijing on March 5, 2023. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP) (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)

    如何衡量中國的真實經濟成長?

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  • 財經

    An anti-party party

    BEIJING, CHINA - MAY 29: A Chinese man stands next to his luxury car as its is parked in an upscale shopping district on May 29, 2015 in Beijing, China. China is expected to become the world's largest luxury car market by 2016, analysts say. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

    中國共產黨將矛頭指向享樂主義銀行家,現在到了該忘記豪華汽車和上海夜生活的時候了。

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  • 財經

    Financial competition

    Famous Skyline of downtown New York, Brooklin Bridge and Manhattan at the early morning sun light , New York City, USA

    紐約的股票市場正在衝擊香港和倫敦的股市,隨著吸引更多的海外上市,大蘋果正在變得更大。

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  • 財經

    A techy tug-of-war

    Steam from a street pipe near the New York Stock Exchange in New York, US, on Friday, Jan. 27, 2023. Credit: John Taggart / Redux / eyevineFor further information please contact eyevinetel: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709e-mail: info@eyevine.comwww.eyevine.com

    從金融業的人工智慧經驗中吸取教訓:人類可以與機器對抗。

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  • 財經

    Buttonwood

    為什麼大宗商品在停滯性通膨時期大放異彩?因為它們提供高回報,與其他資產的相關性低,並能抵禦通貨膨脹。

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  • 財經

    Free exchange

    新興市場央行的試驗有可能重新引發通貨膨脹,其新政策可能破壞二十年來的進展。

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  • 科技

    Science & technology

  • 科技

    The Human Cell Atlas

    人類組織學的製圖正在形成中,它將識別和定位人體內的每一種類型的細胞。

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  • 科技

    The ocean and climate change

    oceanographer, Penny Holliday's, 2016 OSNAP research cruise on the RRS Discovery.

    海洋對氣候的重要性不亞於大氣層,但直到現在,人們才開始對它進行適當的研究。

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  • 科技

    Chromosomal deletions and neurology

    研究破碎的染色體可以照亮神經科學:失去基因和獲得額外的基因有相反的效果。

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  • 科技

    Silver and democracy

    Greek school, (6th-5th century BC) Greek (Macedonian). Museum of Fine Arts, Houston, Texas, USA silver -6

    新式錢幣和傭兵可能帶來了民主,因為在古希臘,舊的秩序無法對抗這兩者。

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  • 文化

    Culture

  • 文化

    Covid-19 in China

    兩本勇氣十足的新書講述了武漢封鎖的故事,它們是對中國政府官方說法的一個重要反駁。

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  • 文化

    Nature and nurture

    Unknown Artist, (19th century) Private Collection drawing 0

    彼得.弗蘭科潘在《被改造的地球》中對於環境如何塑造歷史,以及歷史如何塑造,以不同的方式審視過去。

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  • 文化

    Back Story

    This image released by Searchlight Pictures shows Brendan Gleeson in

    今年的奧斯卡頒獎典禮將戰爭的戰場,因為戰爭在被提名的電影中隆隆作響,甚至一些外表看起來與戰爭無關的電影也不例外。

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  • 文化

    World in a dish

    新加坡的獨特餐飲風格來到曼哈頓:烹飪來自另一種文化的菜肴是很常見的事,但移植一種心情是另一回事。

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  • 文化

    Hollywood moguls

    NEW YORK - OCTOBER 1994: Sumner Redstone, the president and CEO of National Amusements, Viacom, and CBS, in October of 1994, standing in his Times Square office in New York City. Redstone has an extremely prestigious resume attending Harvard and Harvard Law as well as taking his companies to the forefront of the entertainment world. One of the richest people in America, he is considered on the same playing field as Rupert Murdoch and Ted Turner. (Photo by Joe McNally/Getty Images)

    薩姆納.雷德斯通和派拉蒙之爭:《無稿》是對一個媒體帝國與其有缺陷的經營者所進行的一次不留情面的審查。

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  • 文化

    Fiction from New Zealand

    BGKK14 Arthur's Pass National Park, South Island, New Zealand

    在《伯南森林》中,埃莉諾.卡頓帶著一本驚悚小說回歸:布克獎得主的新小說讓一名億萬富翁與一個非正式的園藝組織進行纏鬥。

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  • 圖說

    Graphic detail

  • 圖說

    No good options

    散戶投資者購買股票期權正遭逢數十億美元的損失,而最新的時尚是離到期只剩幾小時的合同。

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  • 釋義

    The Economist explains

  • 釋義

    The Economist explains

    為什麼聯合國保障「公海」的新條約很重要?長期被忽視的國際水域最終將得到更多保護。

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  • 釋義

    The Economist explains

    AT SEA - SEPTEMBER 28: In this Handout Photo provided by Swedish Coast Guard, the release of gas emanating from a leak on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea on September 28, 2022 in At Sea. A fourth leak has been detected in the undersea gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe, after explosions were reported earlier this week in suspected sabotage. (Photo by Swedish Coast Guard via Getty Images)

    誰炸毀了北溪油管?

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  • 訃告

    Obituary

  • 訃告

    The King of Sting

    賈斯汀.施密特終身研究對我們發動攻擊的昆蟲,這位無畏的昆蟲學家被蜇了數百次,於 2 月 18 日去世,享年 75 歲。

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