China has chilling plans for governing Taiwan 令人毛骨悚然的中國治台計畫

第 9317 期 (2022/1015 出刊) 的《經濟學人》在 Special Report 中刊出台灣所面臨到的中國武力統一問題。

本文屬政治性文章，考試出現的機會不大，但是卻與我們自身的未來息息相關，非常推薦閱讀。

需要參加考試的朋友，一定要先看英文，有看不懂的單字也不要一下子放棄，也不要馬上看中文翻譯，盡量利用前後文推想，猜猜不懂的單字是什麼意思，好逼出自己的潛力。這對於參加考試來說，至關重要。

本文長度約 1,900 字，約為雅思、托福閱讀測驗長度的兩倍。字彙難度就在雅思、托福這個等級，不過由於討論的是我們自己的問題，所以背景知識不成問題，因而可以降低閱讀的難度。

英文原文與對應之中文翻譯整理如下，每個段落附有該段主題導引。如果不想受到引導，可以點選前面所附原文連結。練習閱讀時若有對語意不清楚之處，可供查閱對照，以提升閱讀理解能力。

1. 台灣問題的起因與解決

   When explaining why they must control the island of Taiwan, China’s communist rulers tell a story of past shame and future vindication. “The Taiwan question arose as a result of weakness and chaos in our nation, and it will be resolved as national rejuvenation becomes a reality,” declares a State Council white paper on Taiwan policy that was issued in August.

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   在解釋他們為什麼必須控制台灣時，中共的統治者講述了一個關於過去恥辱和未來平反的故事。8 月發佈的國務院臺灣政策白皮書宣稱：「臺灣問題是由於我們國家的軟弱和混亂而產生的，隨著民族復興的實現，此問題將得到解決。」

2. 中國收復台灣的憧憬

   As party bosses tell it, recovering Taiwan will erase 19th-century humiliations, when a decaying Chinese empire lost tracts of territory to foreign powers. It will heal scars left by Japan’s occupation of the island from 1895 to 1945. Above all, it will mark a final victory in the civil war left unfinished since 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek, leader of the defeated, American-backed Nationalist regime, led millions of troops and refugees into exile on Taiwan. Though this is not said aloud, if Xi Jinping as boss of the People’s Republic ever leads a victory parade through Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, it will mark his ascension into China’s pantheon of immortal rulers, alongside Mao Zedong and the great unifying emperors.

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   正如黨的領導人所說，收復臺灣將洗刷 19 世紀的屈辱，當時一個衰落的中華帝國將大片領土割讓給了外來列強。它將撫平日本在 1895 年至 1945 年佔領該島時留下的傷疤。最重要的是，它將標誌著自 1949 年以來未竟之內戰的最後勝利，當時被擊敗國民黨政權受美國支持，其領導人蔣介石帶領數百萬軍隊和難民流亡到臺灣。雖然這並沒有被拿來昭告天下，但如果習近平作為中華人民共和國的領導人有一天帶領勝利的遊行隊伍穿過臺灣的首都臺北，這將標誌著他晉身中國不朽統治者的萬神殿，與毛澤東和其他偉大的大一統君主並駕齊驅。

3. 美國承諾模稜兩可

   For all that focus on China’s resurgence, the conquest of Taiwan would be a civil conflict with world-altering consequences. That is because Chinese victory would involve defeat for America, Taiwan’s superpower protector. For seven decades America has deterred an invasion of Taiwan by the mainland, even though since 1979 no formal defence treaty has obliged it to come to the island’s aid. Instead, American presidents have offered ambiguous commitments to Taiwan, to keep all sides from provocations (though President Biden has said American troops would intervene after an “unprecedented attack”, which is not very ambiguous).

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   對於所有關注中國復興的人來說，征服臺灣將是一場具有改變世界後果的內部衝突。這是因為中國的勝利牽涉到美國這個臺灣的超級大國保護者的挫敗。70 年來，美國一直在阻止大陸對臺灣的入侵，儘管自 1979 年以來，沒有任何正式的防務條約規定美國有義務向臺灣提供援助。相反的，美國歷任總統對一向對臺灣作出模棱兩可的承諾，以防止各方進行挑釁（儘管拜登總統曾說美國軍隊會在「前所未有的攻擊」後進行干預，這就不算非常模棱兩可）。

4. 中國目標

   The humbling of America would reshape the security order that has kept peace in the Asia-Pacific for the past half-century. In a worst case, Taiwan’s fall would follow armed conflict between China and America, potentially dragging in neighbours like Japan, as Chinese missiles pounded American air bases on Japanese soil. In China’s preferred scenarios Taiwanese elites would cut a deal or have given in before America even had time to send in the Seventh Fleet. Either way, China’s aim is to push American armed forces out of the “first island chain”, as naval planners call the China-encircling arc that runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

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   美國的屈服將重塑過去半個世紀以來一直維持亞太和平的安全秩序。在最壞的情況下，臺灣的淪陷將伴隨著中美之間的武裝衝突，有可能將日本這樣的鄰國拖下水，因為中國的導彈會轟炸日本本土的美國空軍基地。在中國心儀的劇本中，臺灣的精英會達成協議，或者在美國還沒來得及派出第七艦隊時就已經棄械投降。無論怎樣，中國的目標是將美國武裝部隊趕出「第一島鏈」，這是海軍規劃者對貫穿日本、臺灣和菲律賓的中國包圍弧線的稱呼。

5. 避免重蹈香港覆轍

   America’s humiliations would not end with the island’s submission. In recent times China’s plans for securing Taiwan have become grimmer and more explicit. Chinese leaders have drawn a bleak lesson from anti-government protests in Hong Kong in 2019, namely that to secure a territory exposed to years of Western freedoms, half-measures will not do. They stand ready to crush Taiwan’s thriving, raucous multiparty democracy and “re-educate” the island’s 23m people. In such a scenario, if Western leaders merely wring their hands, senior Asia-Pacific diplomats are clear about what would follow: countries across the region would start to accommodate China in once-unthinkable ways.

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   美國的羞辱不會隨著該島的屈服而結束。最近一段時間，中國奪取臺灣的計畫變得更加嚴峻和明確。中國領導人從 2019 年香港的反政府抗議活動中得到了一個慘痛的教訓，即要確保一個多年來受到西方自由影響的領土，半途而廢是不行的。他們隨時準備要粉碎臺灣繁榮、喧鬧的多黨制民主，並對該島的 2300 萬人民進行「再教育」。在這種情況下，如果西方領導人只是扭扭捏捏，亞太高級外交官們很清楚接下來會發生什麼：此區域內各國將開始以過往無法想像的方式來迎合中國。

6. 意圖使美國遭到譴責

   China has another goal: to ensure that America is blamed for the turmoil of a Taiwan crisis. The 170km-wide Taiwan Strait is the main route for container ships from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to the world. A single Taiwanese company, TSMC, makes over 80% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. China has been polishing anti-American talking points. A Western diplomat reports that around Asia, Chinese envoys call America a provocateur that once accepted Taiwan’s status as a part of China, but now encourages its separatist fantasies. China is succeeding, the diplomat says. In a crisis, many Asian neighbours would blame America and its ally Japan for stirring tensions.

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   中國還有另一個目標：確保美國因臺灣危機的動盪而備受指責。170 公里寬的臺灣海峽是中國、日本、韓國和臺灣的貨櫃輪通往世界的主要通道。光台積電這家臺灣公司就製造了超過 80% 的世界最先進半導體。中國一直在琢磨反美言論。一位西方外交官報告說，在亞洲各地，中國使節稱美國是個挑釁者，曾經接受臺灣作為中國一部分的地位，但現在卻鼓勵其分離主義幻想。這位外交官說，中國正逐步達成目標。在危機中，許多亞洲鄰國會指責美國及其盟友日本挑起了緊張局勢。

7. 分化政經菁英

   A second diplomat adds that China does not need to win every argument: sowing confusion will do. He suggests that China’s influence networks, and its willingness to use economic coercion, have divided Asia’s political, business and media elites. As a result, many governments would struggle to craft coherent responses to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

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   第二位元外交官補充說，中國不需要贏得每次的爭執：光散播混亂就夠了。他認為，中國的影響力網路和樂於使用經濟脅迫，已經分裂了亞洲的政治、商業與媒體精英。因此，許多政府將很難對中國攻擊臺灣做出一致的反應。

8. 越來越危險

   In foreign capitals, discussions of China’s ambitions for Taiwan often turn on the military balance of power—assuming, in effect, that once the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) thinks it can prevail, China will strike. A senior Western official calls tensions over Taiwan “more and more dangerous” as every new warship rolls out of Chinese dockyards, suggesting: “It is almost a question of physics: when enough force builds up, it explodes.” In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the PLA has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027 (when Mr Xi will probably be ending a third five-year term as party chief).

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   在各國首都，討論到中國對臺灣的野心往往取決於軍事力量的平衡—實際上是假設一旦人民解放軍認為可以獲勝，中國就會出擊。一位西方資深官員稱，隨著每艘新戰艦駛出中國船塢，臺灣問題的緊張局勢就「越來越危險」，這代表了：「這幾乎是個物理問題：當足夠力量積累時，它就會爆炸。」在華府，消息指稱，人民解放軍被告知要準備好在 2027 年（習近平先生將可能結束第三個五年的黨魁任期）之前拿下臺灣。

9. 時間對中國有利

   Chinese debates about the urgency of resolving the Taiwan question typically examine all options facing their leaders, whether political, economic or military. Full-scale war is called a bad outcome. An anti-secession law passed in 2005 states that China’s rulers must not let Taiwan drift away until it becomes irrecoverable. Hawks call for early military action. But as long as other scenarios look possible, some mainland experts argue that time is on China’s side.

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   中國關於解決臺灣問題緊迫性的辯論通常會研究其領導人面對的所有選項，無論是政治、經濟還是軍事。全面戰爭被稱為是嚴重的後果。2005 年通過的反分裂法指出，中國的統治者不能任由臺灣漸行漸遠，終至無可挽回。鷹派人士呼籲儘早採取軍事行動。但只要其他情況看起來有可能性，一些大陸專家認為，時間是站在中國這一邊的。

10. 過往態度

    The bad news is that Chinese scholars sound increasingly convinced that island politics are reducing the mainland’s options. A generation ago, Chinese leaders worked to bind Taiwanese business elites with commercial ties. They dangled offers of trade and tourism as they urged islanders to shun pro-independence parties. In this endeavour China’s natural partner was the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) party, once led by Chiang Kai-shek. Though old foes, the KMT and Communist Party agreed, at least in theory, that Taiwan is part of China—though even the KMT stopped short of welcoming mainland promises of autonomy, under a “one country, two systems” model.

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    不幸的是，聽起來中國學者越來越相信，島嶼上的政治狀態正在減少大陸的選項。一個世代之前，中國領導人努力使用商業關係維繫臺灣的商業精英。他們在敦促島內居民迴避支持獨立的政黨的同時，也釋出貿易和旅遊的提議。在此嘗試下，中國可想而知的對造是曾經由蔣介石領導的國民黨。雖然是宿敵，但國民黨和共產黨至少在理論上認同臺灣是中國的一部分—儘管即使國民黨也不歡迎大陸在「一國兩制」模式下的自治承諾。

11. 台灣現行民意

    In contrast, China refuses to talk to the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party now in power, treating its leader, President Tsai Ing-wen, as a dangerous radical, though in truth she is a moderate and pragmatic former trade lawyer. Alas for China, even the KMT now sounds more sceptical of mainland promises. The KMT has little choice. Taiwanese voters watched as China trampled Hong Kong’s version of one country, two systems after months of anti-government protests in 2019. They saw China impose a new national security law on the territory and stage local elections open only to vetted patriots, before jailing opposition politicians, journalists and professors. Hong Kong’s woes left a mark. In polls by the National Chengchi University, only 6.4% of Taiwanese say they want to move towards rule by Beijing, either now or in the future. That is down from 18.2% two decades ago.

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    相比之下，中國拒絕與現任執政支持獨立的民進黨對話，將其領導人蔡英文總統視為一名危險的激進分子，儘管事實上她是一位溫和務實的前商務律師。對中國來說，即使是國民黨，現在聽起來也對大陸的承諾產生更多懷疑。國民黨沒有什麼選擇。臺灣選民看著中國在 2019 年幾個月的反政府抗議活動後踐踏了香港的一國兩制。他們看到中國對香港實施了新的國家安全法，並舉行了只對通過審查的愛國者開放的地方選舉，然後監禁了反對派政治人士、記者和教授。香港的不幸遭遇留下了痕跡。在國立政治大學的民意調查中，只有 6.4% 的臺灣人說他們現在或將來希望走向北京統治。這比二十年前的 18.2% 有所下降。

12. 國務院白皮書變化

    In 1993 and 2000, State Council white papers included pledges that PLA troops and mainland administrators would not be stationed on a Chinese-run Taiwan. Those guarantees are missing from the latest white paper. Instead, it suggests that those Taiwanese “who support the reunification of the country and the rejuvenation of the nation” may help run the island. The echoes of “patriots governing Hong Kong” are loud.

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    在 1993 年和 2000 年，國務院的白皮書中包括保證人民解放軍部隊和大陸官員不會進駐中國治下的臺灣。這些保證在最新的白皮書中消失了。取而代之的是，它建議那些「支持國家統一和民族復興」的臺灣人可以幫助管理該島。這與「愛國者治港」高聲唱和。

13. 鷹派意見

    China’s formal stance on Taiwan may be hardened at the 20th Party Congress. China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, declared in August that Taiwan’s population had been indoctrinated, intoxicated and “de sinicised” by pro-independence politicians on the island, and needed “re-education”. Adding his own note of chauvinism, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said that Ms Tsai was an “unworthy descendant” who had betrayed her ancestors.

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    中國在臺灣問題上的正式立場可能會在黨的二十大上變得更加強硬。中國駐法國大使盧沙野在 8 月宣稱，臺灣民眾已經被島上支持獨立的政治人物灌輸、灌醉和「去中國化」，需要「再教育」。中國外交部長王毅在補充自己的沙文主義時說，蔡英文是一個背叛了她祖先的「不肖子孫」。

14. 不懼制裁

    There is no reason to think that Chinese officials are bluffing about crushing Taiwan’s freedoms. True, many Western governments would impose sanctions. But Chinese scholars are bullish that their country is too big to punish for long. Well-connected analysts tell diplomats in Beijing that Russia has yet to be broken by sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. They murmur: you have already lost Russia, can you afford to lose China, too?

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    沒有理由認為在粉碎臺灣自由上中國官員是在虛張聲勢。的確，許多西方政府會實施制裁。但中國學者對未來充滿信心認為他們的國家太大，無法施以長期懲罰。關係良好的分析家告訴北京的外交官，俄羅斯還沒有被入侵烏克蘭後實施的制裁擊垮。他們私下說道：你們已經失去了俄羅斯，你們能經得起也失去中國嗎？

15. 不可低估中國殘酷

    Some fatalistic Western officials agree, noting that China has not paid a lasting price for repression in Hong Kong. A few wonder, privately, whether Taiwan should be pressed to take the best deal it can get, to avoid war and accommodate China’s rise with the minimum of disruption. Such foreign-policy realists are surely underestimating how brutal a Chinese takeover would be, and the collapse in Western credibility that would follow.

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    一些宿命論的西方官員同意，指出中國並沒有為在香港的鎮壓付出持久的代價。少數人私下想，是否應該迫使臺灣接受它能得到的最好的交易，以避免戰爭並在最小的干擾下適應中國的崛起。這些外交政策的現實主義者肯定低估了中國的接管將是多麼的殘酷，以及隨之而來的西方信譽的崩潰。

16. 台灣不是香港

    Hong Kong was only ever a partial democracy, even as British rule ended in 1997, and never independent. In contrast Taiwan’s people have freely chosen their president and parliament for a generation: a rebuke to those who call democracy unsuited to polities with Chinese roots. When asked about their identity, 63.7% of islanders call themselves Taiwanese, up from 17.6% in 1992.

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    即使英國的統治在 1997 年結束時，香港也只是一個部分民主的國家，而且從未獨立。相比之下，臺灣人民自由選擇他們的總統和議會已經有一個世代了：打臉那些稱民主不適合有中國淵源的政體的人。當被問及他們的身份時，63.7% 的島上居民稱自己是臺灣人，比 1992 年的 17.6% 要高。

17. 大陸人民態度

    China’s people are not being prepared for international opprobrium, should the world see Taiwanese politicians jailed and fleeing into exile, or watch student protesters being tear gassed, or worse. Instead, they are told that controlling the island will give China “greater international influence and appeal”. In a speech celebrating China’s tighter grip on Hong Kong, Mr Xi talked of “the universal rule that a government must be in the hands of patriots”.

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    萬一世界看到臺灣的政治家被監禁和出亡，或者看到抗議學生被催淚彈襲擊，或者更糟的情況發生，中國人民還沒有為國際社會的責難做好準備。相反的，有人告訴他們，控制該島將給中國帶來「更大的國際影響力和吸引力」。在歌頌中國加強對香港管控的講話中，習近平先生談到了「政權必須掌握在愛國者手中這一普遍規則」。

18. 美國往昔態度

    Such boasts reflect a dangerous contempt for Taiwanese freedoms. Chinese officials call foreign praise for the island’s democracy a mere “smokescreen”. In reality, democratisation has transformed the Taiwan question. China is correct that Americans once sounded happy to sell out Taiwan. Years after President Richard Nixon shook the world by visiting Maoist China in 1972, declassified transcripts showed the American leader and his then national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, privately hinting to their Chinese hosts that Taiwan’s fate was for China to decide, though public communiqués were more ambiguous.

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    這種吹噓反映了對臺灣自由的危險蔑視。中國官員稱外國對臺灣民主的讚美只是「煙幕」。但實際上，民主化已經改變了臺灣問題。中國是對的，美國人曾經聽起來很樂意出賣臺灣。在 1972 年理查-尼克森總統訪問毛澤東的中國震撼了全世界的多年後，解密的記錄顯示，這位美國領導人和他當時的國家安全顧問亨利-季辛吉私下向他們的中國主人暗示，臺灣的命運應由中國決定，但公開的公報則比較含糊。

19. 美國曾經姑息

    In the 1970s, as America moved to recognise the People’s Republic and abandon the fiction that Chiang Kai-shek’s regime was the rightful government of all China, the main political constraint in Washington was the wrath of anticommunists in Congress. But Chiang, a stubborn old despot, weakened his case with calls for America to invade or bomb China, and by using martial law to crush dissent. A White House tape from 1971 records Mr Kissinger pondering the abandonment of Chiang, telling Nixon: “We have to be cold about it.”

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    20 世紀 70 年代，當美國開始承認中華人民共和國，並放棄蔣介石政權是全中國合法政府的假象時，華盛頓的主要政治制約因素是國會中反共人士的憤怒。但是，蔣介石這個頑固的老暴君，通過呼籲美國入侵或轟炸中國，以及使用戒嚴法鎮壓異議，削弱了他的地位。1971 年的一盤白宮錄音帶記錄了季辛吉先生對放棄蔣介石的思考，他告訴尼克森：「我們必須無情一些」。

20. 目前美國對台態度

    Were Taiwan still a military dictatorship full of political prisoners, it would be a niche cause in Washington, for all today’s hawkishness on China. As it is, bipartisan support for Taiwan is at its strongest in years. Chinese officials cast the recent visit to Taiwan by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, as part of a plot to contain China, and the PLA staged war games that resembled a rehearsal for a blockade of the island. In fact, Taiwan represents something simpler and more potent in today’s Washington: a faraway beacon of liberty, besieged by a bully.

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    如果臺灣仍然是一個充滿政治犯的軍事獨裁國家，它將是華盛頓的一個利基主張，儘管今天對中國的態度很鷹派。而現在，兩黨對臺灣的支持是多年來最強烈的。中國官員把眾議院議長南茜-裴洛西最近對臺灣的訪問說成是遏制中國的陰謀的一部分，而人民解放軍則進行了類似於封鎖該島的兵棋推演。事實上，在今天的華盛頓，臺灣代表著更簡單、更有力的東西：一個被惡霸圍困的遙遠自由燈塔。

21. 危急存亡之秋

    War over Taiwan would be a catastrophe. But China’s obsession with control is eliminating many painless routes to peace. For over 70 years Taiwan’s fate has been integral to the Asian security order. The liberal political order is at stake, too. ■

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    爭奪臺灣的戰爭將是一場大災難。但中國對控制權的癡迷正在消蝕許多通往和平的無痛途徑。70 多年來，臺灣的命運一直與亞洲的安全秩序密不可分。自由主義的政治秩序正處於危急存亡之秋。