The Queen's Gambit is right: young chess stars always usurp the old 《后翼棄兵》說對了：棋壇果真是一代新人換舊人

Champions decline with age and each generation is better than the last

冠軍棋士隨著年齡老去而凋落，每個世代都更勝前代

From the very first episode of “The Queen's Gambit”, a hit Netflix miniseries about chess in the 1960s, it is clear what a precocious talent Beth Harmon is. Before her tenth birthday, she has learned to beat the janitor at the orphanage in Kentucky where she resides. Soon she takes on an entire college chess club in simultaneous matches, winning each one easily. By her troubled teenage years, she is vanquishing all comers, including stalwarts who are considerably older. After Beth wins a gruelling two-day match against one silver-haired champion, he gracefully concedes: “You are a marvel, my dear. I may have just played the best chess player of my life.”

從一部講述 20 世紀 60 年代關於國際象棋（西洋棋）的熱門網飛 (Netflix) 迷你劇集《后翼棄兵》的第一集中，清楚看出貝絲 · 哈蒙是怎樣一個早熟天才。在她十歲生日前，她已經學會如何在在棋盤上擊敗她居住的肯塔基州孤兒院裡的工友。不久後，她同時與整個大學國際象棋社同時進行對弈，輕鬆大獲全勝。在她坎坷的青少年歲月裡，她一一擊敗前來比試的人，包括那些年紀大得多、意志堅定的棋手。在貝絲與一位銀髮冠軍的兩天艱苦比賽獲勝後，對手優雅地認輸：「我親愛的，你真是個奇葩。我剛剛可能跟我這一生中碰到的最厲害棋手下了一盤棋。」

【註】在影集中，Beth 參加的是在高中舉行的西洋棋賽，並非大學。

【問題】故事背景在 1960 年代，但說到 Beth 的部分時態都是用現在式或現在完成式（黃底色部分），這是什麼文法規則？

The seven-episode drama has received universal acclaim from critics: of the 58 reviews gathered by Rotten Tomatoes, an entertainment website, every one was positive. But it has also been praised by chess aficionados for its accuracy (doubtless helped by having Garry Kasparov, a former world champion, as a consultant). And a recent paper by three economists confirms that the series' portrayal of a young upstart vanquishing her elders is exactly what happens in real chess, decade after decade.

這部七集的影集廣獲好評：娛樂網站爛番茄收錄的 58 則評論中，每一條都持肯定評價。同時影集也因為內容正確無誤而受到國際象棋愛好者的讚譽（此事毫無疑問，因為影集聘請前世界冠軍加里 · 卡斯帕羅夫為顧問）。三位經濟學家最近的 一篇論文 證實，這部影集中對一位年輕新貴擊敗資深棋手的描述，正是一代復一代，國際棋壇的真實寫照。

【註】在 Rotten Tomatoes 中能夠獲得專業影評 100 分，觀眾評分 96 分，是個非常非常不容易的成就。這個數字代表的是，除非你的口味異於常人甚鉅（也就是另外那 4%），不然你一定會喜歡這部影集的。

The study, published last month in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analysed 24,000 matches involving world champions between 1890 and 2014. To assess the performances of the champions and their opponents, the academics compared their 1.6m moves against Stockfish 8, a chess-playing program that computes the best possible move for a given configuration of pieces on the board. The players were scored according to how often they picked Stockfish 8's optimal moves. (The researchers also estimated how each move affected a player's chance of winning and how often they made catastrophic mistakes.)

這項發表在上個月《國家科學院學報》中的研究，分析了 1890 年至 2014年間有世界冠軍參賽的 24,000 場比賽。為了評估冠軍和對手的表現，學者們拿他們的 160 萬手棋與 Stockfish 8 做比較。Stockfish 8 是個國際象棋遊戲程式，會針對棋盤上給定的棋子配置計算最好的落子。研究依照比賽雙方選擇與 Stockfish 8 的最佳落子相同棋步的次數來計算分數。（研究人員還估算了每次落子如何影響參賽者獲勝的機會，以及他們犯災難性錯誤的可能性。）

These results produced two clear conclusions. First, players tend to reach their peak early in their careers, with little improvement after their 30s. (There are even signs of a decline after 50.) Second, each generation comes closer than the last to Stockfish 8's benchmark of optimal play. Professional players born in the 1950s had already reached a higher average level of performance by the age of 25 than those born in the 1920s ever did.

這些結果得出了兩個明確的結論。首先，棋士們往往在職業生涯的初期達到頂峰，30 歲之後就幾乎沒有進步。（甚至在 50 歲之後有下滑的徵兆。）其次，每一代棋士都比上一輩更接近 Stockfish 8 的最佳棋局表現。20 世紀 50 年代出生的職業棋士在 25 歲時的平均表現水準已經比 20 世紀 20 年代出生的選手一生所能達到的程度還要高。

The authors reckon that the early-peak effect can be explained by the fact that the human brain's problem-solving ability (or “fluid intelligence”) reaches its high point at around the age of 20. As for the long upward trend in performance through the decades, the authors suggest that more rigorous training is probably the cause. Indeed, modern chess masters can study the machines that now tend to beat them. If Beth were playing a methodical young champion today, she might surprise them with unorthodox play—but she would make enough mistakes to lose most of her games.

論文作者認為，早期顛峰期效應可以解釋為人腦解決問題的能力（或稱為「流動智慧」）在 20 歲左右達到其高點。至於其後數十年績效長期上升的趨勢，作者則認為，可能導因自更嚴格的訓練。事實上，現代國際象棋大師可以研究目前可能擊敗他們的機器。如果貝絲今日與一名有條理的年輕冠軍對弈，她可能會用非正統的打法來給他們一個驚喜——但她也會犯下夠多的錯誤而輸掉大部分比賽。

【註】最後一句使用了虛擬語氣，注意動詞時態的使用，如黃色底線所示。