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中國到頂了?—《經濟學人》懶人包 No. 9346 (2023/05/13)

2023-0513-The-Economist-No9346-Peak-China

本周《經濟學人》全球封面故事介紹了對中國的深入研究。各國的經濟學家們正在重新考慮關於中國的 GDP 規模將超過美國的預測。

根據目前最可信的預測顯示,這兩個國家的經濟將在未來十年左右維持均勢,並在未來幾十年內保持此一態勢。

而中國對於經濟發展可能的平坦軌跡將如何面對?同時這對它與美國的競爭有什麼影響?這些問題都會在本期的《經濟學人》中提出目前的解答。

【經典美語】獨家課程

《經濟學人》即時精修班

全台灣獨一無二的英語進修課程

每周三,即時精修班利用《經濟學人》綜合五大洋七大洲,橫跨政治、經濟、社會、文化各面向的精彩報導與分析,引領讀者進入英語閱讀與寫作的高級殿堂。統合字彙、文法、句型、結構、邏輯、背景知識,提供學者全方位的英語學習體驗。

課程說明請點選下列按鈕,並歡迎預約試聽 (實體、雲端)。

  • 一周大事

    The world this week

  • 政治

    Politics

    FILE - Former President Donald Trump speaks at his Mar-a-Lago estate Tuesday, April 4, 2023, in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

    一周政治大事回顧。

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  • 商業

    Business

    GREENVILLE, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 27: A woman selects fresh vegetables at a Tops Super Market October 27, 2022 in Greenville, New York. Recent economic reports showed that consumer spending slowed in the third quarter as inflation numbers rose to decrease consumer's spending power. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)

    一周經濟大事摘要。

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  • 社論

    Leaders

  • 社論

    China and the world

    中國的歷史性上升正在趨於平穩,中國的力量是否即將達到頂峰?

    Read more

  • 社論

    Border trouble

    小而明智的步驟可以說明緩解美國的邊境困境:處理移民、毒品和幫派問題的實用藝術。

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  • 社論

    The outcast returns

    敘利亞獨裁者的康復給西方帶來了尷尬的問題,對於如何以及何時放鬆制裁,需要有更明確的原則。

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  • 社論

    A bad balance

    喬.拜登對高通膨的責任比對豐富的就業機會的責任更大:總統的經濟政策的主要影響是拉高了價格。

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  • 社論

    A stochastic parrot in every pot

    洩露的谷歌備忘錄對人工智慧的未來有什麼啟示?開源人工智慧正在蓬勃發展。這使得少數公司控制該技術的可能性降低。

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  • 投書

    Letters

  • 投書

    Letters

    關於不結盟國家和烏克蘭、以色列、土耳其、人工智慧等寫給編輯的信件精選。

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  • 簡報

    Briefing

  • 簡報

    Mountain range

    中國經濟多久會達到頂峰,會在什麼高度?估計數不同,取決於對人口、生產力和價格的假設。

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  • 簡報

    Superpower showdown

    中國對美國:習近平計畫如何縮小軍事差距?從潛艇到核彈,儘管經濟放緩,習近平仍在提升中國的火力。

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  • 簡報

    Sun Tzu’s slide-rule

    中國如何衡量國力?我們將如何做?

    Read more

  • 簡報

    History lessons

    帝國的衰落困擾著習近平的思想,隨著經濟增長放緩,總統的焦慮也將隨之而來。

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  • 簡報

    Chaguan

    中國學會管理衰退:來自一個兒童稀少的中國城市宜春的教訓。

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  • 美國

    United States

  • 美國

    Supply-side epidemic

    芬太尼販運考驗美國的外交政策:然而,即使沒有墨西哥或中國的幫助,也有辦法減少吸毒過量的死亡。

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  • 美國

    The end of Title 42

    YUMA, ARIZONA - MAY 10: Immigrants seeking asylum in the United States walk along a border barrier on their way to be processed by U.S. Border Patrol agents in the early morning hours after crossing into Arizona from Mexico on May 10, 2023 in Yuma, Arizona. A surge of immigrants is expected with the end of the U.S. government's Covid-era Title 42 policy, which for the past three years has allowed for the quick expulsion of irregular migrants entering the country. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    為什麼美國和墨西哥邊境會出現混亂?作為限制移民到期的措施,一些城市已經宣佈進入緊急狀態。

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  • 美國

    Beyond Derby day

    2R053DX Louisville, United States. 06th May, 2023. Mage ridden by Javier Castellano wins the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Mary 6, 2023. Two Phils Placed second at right. Photo by Pat Benic/UPI Credit: UPI/Alamy Live News

    美國的賽馬運動需要提高其賠率:馬匹和課程的生存鬥爭正在進行中。

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  • 美國

    Community banks

    美國的小銀行做了哪些大銀行沒有做的事?

    Read more

  • 美國

    Let’s go Brandon

    Brandon Johnson, a progressive Cook County commissioner, in Chicago on Election Day, Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023. The mayoral runoff in Chicago between Paul Vallas, and Johnson includes idiosyncrasies that have nothing to do with ideology: a white candidate against a Black one, the police union against the teachers, even the question of which man is the true Chicagoan. (Jamie Kelter Davis/The New York Times)Credit: New York Times / Redux / eyevineFor further information please contact eyevinetel: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709e-mail: info@eyevine.comwww.eyevine.com *** Local Caption *** 15875466

    芝加哥新任市長擁有政治中最棘手的工作之一:布蘭登.詹森將努力實現他的宏偉承諾。

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  • 美國

    Lexington

    唐納德.川普已變得更加危險:儘管很糟糕,但 CNN 的訪談節目揭示了他帶來的威脅,為國家做出了貢獻。

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  • 美洲

    The Americas

  • 美洲

    Beyond drugs

    墨西哥的黑幫正在成為犯罪集團,他們正在擴展到社會的每個角落。

    Read more

  • 美洲

    The president v the court

    Anti-government demonstrators shout slogans against Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, during a march against recent reforms to the country's electoral law that they say threaten democracy, in Mexico City's main square, The Zocalo, Sunday, Feb. 26, 2023. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

    墨西哥最高法院與總統 AMLO 進行鬥爭:總統可能無法實現他想要達成的政治遺產。

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  • 美洲

    In the swing

    Jose Antonio Kast,Êfounder of Partido Republicano and presidential candidate, speaks at the party's headquarters following the Constitutional Council elections in Santiago, Chile, on Sunday, May 7, 2023. Chilean voters delivered a humiliating blow to PresidentÊGabriel Boric's administration as right-wing parties secured a veto-proof majority on the Constitutional Council that will spearhead the latest attempt to write a new charter. Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    保守派這次在智利制憲會議上占主導地位,一反去年制憲會議被認為是太過偏左了遺憾。

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  • 亞洲

    Asia

  • 亞洲

    Pacific jitters

    日本會不會開打?美國的盟友對發動戰爭保衛臺灣感到緊張。

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  • 亞洲

    Art in the dark

    Kim Do-yoon, a tattoo artist who founded a 650-member tattoo labor union that advocates for the rights of artists, in Seoul, May 3, 2022. (Chang W. Lee/The New York Times)Credit: New York Times / Redux / eyevineFor further information please contact eyevinetel: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709e-mail: info@eyevine.comwww.eyevine.com

    為什麼韓國的紋身師被標記為罪犯?政府在國外推廣其文化,卻在國內鎖住藝術家。

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  • 亞洲

    Fuel to the fire

    Private security personnel with bulletproof shields escort former Prime Minister Imran Khan as he arrives to appear in a court, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Tuesday, May 9, 2023. Officials from the party of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Khan say he has been arrested as he appeared in a court in the capital, Islamabad, to face charges in multiple graft cases. (AP Photo/Ghulam Farid)

    伊姆蘭.汗被捕使巴基斯坦更接近邊緣化,他的支持者們願意把他們的鬥爭帶到軍隊中去。

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  • 亞洲

    Rolling out the red carpet

    Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy speaks during the Global Investors Summit 2023 in Visakhapatnam, India, Friday, March 3, 2023. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)

    印度各邦如何競爭投資?把 CEO 們放在一個有空調的帳篷裡,對商業環境會有好處。

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  • 亞洲

    Banyan

    新加坡和香港之間的古老競爭中出現了一個贏家:從商業到城市生活,新加坡脫穎而出。

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  • 中東非洲

    Middle East & Africa

  • 中東非洲

    War and peacemaking

    西方在蘇丹建立和平方面的錯誤之處:不要把軍閥當成政治家。

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  • 中東非洲

    Oba v Obaseki

    The King, known as Oba of Benin, Omo NOba Uku Akpolokpolo, Ewuare II, looks on while receiving repatriated artifacts that was looted from Nigeria over 125 years ago by the British military force in Benin City, mid-western, Nigeria, on February 19, 2022. - The two artifacts, which include a bronze cockerel and a bust, were part of the bronzes, ivories that were looted by British soldiers in 1897 in Benin kingdom, Edo State, Nigeria. (Photo by Kola Sulaimon / AFP) (Photo by KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images)

    奈及利亞的藝術珍品應該屬於國家還是屬於皇家奧巴?對貝南青銅器所有權的裁決可能會推遲它們的回歸。

    Read more

  • 中東非洲

    The hapless, stateless Palestinians

    RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - MARCH 24: Palestinians pass through the Qalandiya checkpoint, separating Ramallah and Jerusalem, to attend the first Friday prayers of holy month of Ramadan at the Al-Aqsa Mosque at the early hours of the morning in Ramallah, West Bank on March 24, 2023. Israeli forces banned Palestinian men between the ages of 12 and 55 from entering Jerusalem. (Photo by Issam Rimawi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

    巴勒斯坦人需要新的領導人,但很少有人相信,以色列會讓他們擁有自己的國家。

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  • 歐洲

    Europe

  • 歐洲

    The man who can

    土耳其一位前任官僚正在給埃爾多安一個機會:凱末爾.基里奇達羅格盧正在與土耳其的強人競爭,也在與時間競爭。

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  • 歐洲

    Drug policy

    Mandatory Credit: Photo by snapshot-photography/F Boillot/Shutterstock (13880378a)About 200 people are calling for the legalization of cannabis and consumption at the Brandenburg Gate with a

    歐洲大麻合法化步入牛步化的車道,而德國已經開始緊張了。

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  • 歐洲

    Ost is Ost

    In this Friday, Aug. 16, 2019 photo an election campaign poster of German Alternative for Germany, AfD, party for the Saxony state election reading: ‚The East stands up' is displayed in the village Gruenwald near Bautzen, Germany. Two elections in eastern Germany's states Brandenburg and Saxony on Sept. 1, 2019 look set to bring big gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany party and another blow to the traditional parties that form the national government. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

    德國統一後的一代人,仍然存在深刻的分歧:極端主義者現在在前東德的民調中表現良好。

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  • 歐洲

    Europe’s armies

    Munitions of a self-propelled howitzer tank are pictured during a visit by German Chancellor of Bundeswehr's troops during a training exercise at the military ground in Ostenholz, northern Germany, on October 17, 2022. (Photo by Ronny HARTMANN / AFP) (Photo by RONNY HARTMANN/AFP via Getty Images)

    歐洲正在努力重建其軍事影響力,它在國防方面的支出更多,但一些國家做得比其他國家好得多。

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  • 歐洲

    Charlemagne

    曾經是俄羅斯在西方最好的朋友,但奧地利正面臨麻煩。

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  • 英國

    Britain

  • 英國

    Modern families

    英國為什麼要更新其關於代孕和配子捐贈的法律?因為同性父母家庭和選擇性單親母親的崛起。

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  • 英國

    Fuss-free final farewells

    CP3CGT Cremated Christian Human Ashes Scattered at a Beauty Spot

    直接火化和埋葬提供了一種不同的哀悼方式。

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  • 英國

    Pushing paper

    People crossing the River Thames at Millennium Bridge towards One Blackfriars and Kings Reach Tower on 30th March 2023 in London, United Kingdom. The Millennium Bridge, officially known as the London Millennium Footbridge, is a steel suspension bridge for pedestrians crossing the River Thames in London, linking Bankside with the City of London. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

    儘管英國脫歐,英國的服務出口仍在蓬勃發展。為什麼?與貨物出口國相比,減少對歐盟的依賴性只是答案的一部分。

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  • 英國

    Li detectors

    In the second part of our Electric dreams series looking at the UK's automotive battery industry, we visit an area whose industrial past is being revitalised.An overgrown quarry in a quiet part of Cornwall is a good place to contemplate Britain's industrial past. It is here that miners used steam power, explosives and their own hands to dig out china clay for ceramics. The industry helped to fuel the Industrial Revolution and briefly made Redruth one of the richest places in the UK.The quarry is also a pretty good place to contemplate Britain's industrial future. Cornish Lithium, a UK startup, is one of a clutch of businesses hoping to revive British mining amid a global scramble for the battery minerals that are crucial for the transition away from fossil fuels.The shift to electric cars is upending the automotive industry. It has also set off a scramble for the minerals that will be used in every vehicle.South Croft Tin Mine, Pool, Cornwall.© Jim Wileman / Guardian / eyevineContact eyevine for more information about using this image:T: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709E: info@eyevine.comhttp://www.eyevine.com

    英國在全球爭奪關鍵礦產的過程中迎頭趕上。

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  • 英國

    Have you come far?

    Escalators down into the new Elizabeth Line station at Whitechapel on 9th January 2023 in London, United Kingdom. Crossrail is a railway construction project mainly in central London. Its aim is to provide a high-frequency hybrid commuter rail and rapid transit system crossing the capital from suburbs on the west to east. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

    倫敦最新的火車線路現在也是最繁忙的。伊莉莎白線的驚人成功。

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  • 英國

    Same anger, different victor

    RAMSGATE, UNITED KINGDOM - 2020/08/22: People enjoy the warm weather at Dumpton Gap, Ramsgate. (Photo by David Mbiyu/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

    工黨在英國脫歐的中心地帶取得驚人的進展,在原脫歐黨黨魁奈傑爾.法拉奇的根據地,選民轉向他們曾經蔑視的政黨。

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  • 英國

    Bagehot

    住房如何成為英國政治的新鴻溝:是建設還是封鎖?

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  • 國際

    International

  • 國際

    The Syrian civil war and its aftermath

    經過 12 年的流血,阿薩德的敘利亞重新加入了阿拉伯聯盟:21 世紀最惡劣的戰犯之一捲土重來。

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  • 商業

    Business

  • 商業

    The Sino-American tech race

    中國在生成性人工智慧方面到底能做到什麼程度?它的模式可能在一段時間內與美國的模式相媲美。但這可能不會轉化為經濟或軍事優勢。

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  • 商業

    An iron will

    An employee passes rolls of steel at the Salzgitter AG steel plant in Salzgitter, Germany, on Monday, July 13, 2020. Europe is pinning its green hopes on hydrogen in a plan that sees hundreds of billions euros in investment flowing into the clean technology and fueling a climate-friendly economic recovery. Photographer: Rolf Schulten/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    歐洲的鋼鐵製造業能以多快的速度實現脫碳?歐洲最骯髒的行業之一有雄心勃勃的計畫來實現綠色發展。

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  • 商業

    The Thais that bind

    A BYD Co. electronic vehicle (EV) is charged at an EV charging station at the company's campus in the Pingshan district of Shenzhen, China, on Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2014. Net debt for BYD Co., the electric automaker partially owned by Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway Inc., or interest-bearing borrowings minus cash and equivalents, climbed 34 percent to a record 20.3 billion yuan ($3.3 billion) at the end of last year. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    中國汽車製造商為何盯上泰國:東南亞提供了一條吸引人的對外擴張之路。

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  • 商業

    Bartleby

    如何在招聘時考慮到員工的軟技能:雇用過程沒有良好的設計來選擇具有社會能力的員工。

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  • 商業

    Schumpeter

    罷工的編劇要小心:好萊塢已經永遠地改變了。如果你願意,可以指責 Netflix,但它有能力在停工中生存下來。

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  • 財經

    Finance & economics

  • 財經

    Beyond the hype

    你的工作(可能)是安全的,不會受到人工智慧的影響。為什麼關於經濟革命即將到來的預測被誇大了?

    Read more

  • 財經

    National statistics, grilled

    ZIBO, CHINA - APRIL 16: A barbecue restaurant in Zibo is packed with diners as long queues of customers wait for vacant tables on April 16, 2023 in Zibo, Shandong Province of China. The city's barbecue restaurants have become an overnight sensation, attracting a large number of visitors. (Photo by Mi Jiafeng/VCG via Getty Images)

    中國經濟增長核心的肉質之謎:烤肉串消費說明了國家的消費情況。

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  • 財經

    Credible

    2A70H1A A bank teller at a tiny Canara Bank branch in the Old Port of Mangalore, Karnataka, India, looks out from behind his counter through a broken window

    印度一度陷入困境的銀行正在創造巨大的利潤,在這一不太可能的轉折背後是什麼?

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  • 財經

    Number-crunching

    A customer arrives at a KeyBank branch in West Hartford, Connecticut, US, on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. KeyCorp is schedule to release earnings figures on April 20. Photographer: Joe Buglewicz/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    美國的區域性銀行是否已經度過了最艱難的時期?新的資料讓我們看到了他們的資產負債表。

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  • 財經

    Buttonwood

    投資人要準備好迎接美國債務上限的痛苦碰撞:可能會找到一個解決方案。但違約不再是不可想像的了。

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  • 財經

    Free exchange

    新的世界秩序尋求將安全和氣候變化放在首位,但政策制定者決不能忘記經濟學的教訓。

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  • 科技

    Science & technology

  • 科技

    War on the fly

    烏克蘭人如何改裝民用無人機用於軍事用途:在與俄羅斯入侵者的鬥爭中,聰明才智得到了回報。

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  • 科技

    47 genomes are better than one

    John D'Albora, 41, a senior research technician, holds up a used flow cell to display its intricacies at the Genome Institute at Washington University on Thursday, April 23, 2015. A flow cell holds the DNA for the sequencing machine. (Cristina Fletes-Boutte/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

    「人類基因組」一直是一個錯誤的名稱:一個新的儲存庫旨在捕捉人類的遺傳多樣性。

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  • 科技

    Smell-O-Vision 2.0

    R7NDW5 Salon Saatchi Gallery Marshmallow lase feast

    如何將氣味帶入元宇宙:VR 愛好者將注意力轉向一種令人回味、但被忽視的感覺。

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  • 文化

    Culture

  • 文化

    The last Founding Father

    馬丁.路德.金是最偉大的美國人之一,也是最被誤解的人。喬納森.艾格的宏偉新傳記在他的所擁有複雜特質之間進行角力。

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  • 文化

    Debut fiction

    A family of refugees native of Indian subcontinent land in an English port, on September 19, 1972 arriving from Uganda after their expulsion from Uganda ordered by Ugandian head of state Idi Amin Dada. (Photo by Marine LEDOUX / AFP) (Photo by MARINE LEDOUX/AFP via Getty Images)

    賈尼卡.奧紮的首部小說描繪了印度僑民的奮鬥歷程:「燃燒的歷史」橫跨各大洲和一整個世紀。

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  • 文化

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

    May 6, 2023, Borodyanka, Ukraine: A woman rides a bicycle past an apartment building destroyed by the Russian army in the city of Borodyanka, northwest of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. (Credit Image: © Sergei Chuzavkov/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press WireZuma / eyevineFor further information please contact eyevinetel: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709e-mail: info@eyevine.comwww.eyevine.com

    謝爾蓋.普洛克希的新書追蹤了弗拉基米爾.普京的戰爭之路,烏克蘭歷史學家展示克里姆林宮的血腥運動如何適得其反。

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  • 文化

    Museums on the move

    The Madonna of the Baldacchino by Raffaello

    烏菲茲美術館正將其藝術推向大眾:它的創新可能被證明是其他博物館和畫廊的典範。

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  • 文化

    A chronicle of the Côte d’Azur

    FRANCE - 1920: Cannes (Alpes-Maritimes). The walk of Croisette, by 1925. LL-213. (Photo by LL/Roger Viollet via Getty Images)

    名人和歷史力量在蔚藍海岸的碰撞:「曾經的世界」描繪了一個傳說中的法國田園風光的發展。

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  • 文化

    Johnson

    在廣播中念外國名字的危害:希望發音正確而太過努力總比不努力的好。

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  • 圖說

    Graphic detail

  • 圖說

    Out in the cold

    去年冬天,昂貴的能源可能比 covid-19 殺死更多的歐洲人:我們的模型估計,高能源價格導致 68,000 人死亡。

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  • 訃告

    Obituary

  • 訃告

    Bottom-up history

    拉納吉特.古哈徹底改變了對印度歷史的研究,這位孟加拉的歷史學家於 4 月 28 日去世,享年 99 歲。

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留學考試 英語教甄 高階進修

打造英語超級閱讀力

字彙方法學 + 經濟學人

字彙方法學教您不必死背就能大幅增加字彙量 降低閱讀障礙

《經濟學人》帶您走遍全世界看盡大小事 提升思辨能力充實素養

兩大利器強強聯手 從此英語閱讀如探囊取物 考試進修無往不利

學會拆字就能猜字—112 高中英文教甄全國聯招字彙題調查整理
BBC 6 分鐘英語—Addicted to war 戰爭成癮

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Tuesday, 05 November 2024